أزمة أم فرصة؟ التعامل الاستراتيجي مع تأثير رسوم ترامب الجمركية

In-Depth Research Analysis: 

1. Executive Summary
Trump's latest tariff policy marks a new phase of American protectionism, unprecedented in scale and breadth. This report analyzes the specific content of the policy, its implementation path, and impact on the global economy and asset prices. Based on existing data and model predictions, we believe this policy will lead to a restructuring of global trade patterns, drag on US economic growth, increase inflationary pressures, and trigger systematic reassessment of asset prices. Investors should reevaluate portfolio risk exposures, increase defensive asset allocations, and focus on structural opportunities in domestically-oriented enterprises.

2. Detailed Analysis of Trump's Tariff Policy

1) Tariff Scale and Structure
Trump's administration has adopted a "two-tier model" tariff structure consisting of base tariffs and country-specific tariffs:

• Base tariffs: 10% on all imported goods globally (even on countries with which the US has a trade deficit)
• Country-specific tariffs: Differentiated additional tariffs based on reciprocity principles for different countries/regions
  The comprehensive tariff structure is as follows:

Additionally, fentanyl tariffs (20%) will continue to apply to Chinese imports. The de minimis exemption policy for small packages will be eliminated on May 2, replaced by a 30% tariff on goods value or $25 per item (increasing to $50 per item after June 1).

2) Implementation Timeline and Scope

• April 9: Policy officially takes effect
• June 1: Small package tariffs increase to $50 per item

Notably, semiconductor products are temporarily exempted, but the White House indicates this decision may be reassessed.

3) Market Expectations vs. Policy Gap

The market previously viewed tariffs primarily as a negotiation tool rather than an ideologically-driven policy shift, a cognitive bias that left markets unprepared for the actual policy shock. Overall, the coverage and intensity of this tariff policy greatly exceeded market expectations, severely impacting the foundation of global trade, leading to sharp declines in global stock markets following the announcement.

3. Macroeconomic Impact Analysis

1) US Economic Outlook

Based on quantitative measurements, the tariff policy's impact on the US economy includes:

• GDP growth: US real GDP may decrease by 1.5-2 percentage points in 2025, with Q2 growth potentially turning negative
• Inflationary pressure: CPI may rise by 1 percentage point, with inflation rates possibly reaching 4-5% in 2025
• Consumer spending: Additional annual expenditure increase of thousands of dollars per US household

For the US, consumer costs will rise significantly as import prices increase, leading to higher end-product prices, weakened consumer demand, and compressed corporate profits. Retaliatory measures from trading partners, such as China's announced 34% tariff on US goods, will cause global trade volume to shrink, putting pressure on economic growth.

2) Global Economic Chain Reaction

• Global economic downturn: In a full tariff scenario, global trade significantly contracts, with some countries facing recession risks
• Impact on Asian economies: Most severely affected, as most Southeast Asian countries are export-dependent economies, especially Vietnam, where GDP may decline 5-6%, and Taiwan region, where it may drop 2-3%
• European economic pressure: EU's advantageous industries such as automobiles and cosmetics are significantly affected, while the 10% tariff on the UK has relatively minor impact
• Middle East region: Primarily affected by declining demand for crude oil and other commodities due to global economic slowdown, dragging down their economies

4. Market Reaction and Valuation Impact

1) US Stock Market Outlook

• Short-term outlook (6-12 months):

The short-term trend appears pessimistic. Current US stock valuations remain relatively expensive, with the S&P 500 index trading at a P/E ratio of 23x, which is moderately high. Additionally, approximately 30% of S&P 500 revenues come from overseas markets. The contraction in global trade will significantly reduce the index's profit growth rate, suggesting continued volatility and downward pressure in the short term.
The current market focus is whether Europe will implement countermeasures, such as restricting US technology services (e.g., software services and streaming services) or revoking intellectual property protections or commercial usage rights. Although the probability is relatively low, if this occurs, the S&P 500 index could potentially decline by an additional 20%-30%.

• Long-term outlook (1-3 years):
  • The long-term structural impact of the "America First" policy may lead to increased market risk premiums
  • Gross margin pressure and supply chain restructuring costs will burden corporate earnings
  • However, capital repatriation and policy support may benefit certain US domestic manufacturing sectors

2) Saudi Stock Market Outlook
Despite Saudi Arabia's recent economic diversification policies, its stock market still maintains a high correlation with oil prices. With Brent crude currently down to $64, and as the trade war progresses, tariffs are expected to continue increasing, significantly hampering the global economy. This will likely lead to a substantial drop in oil demand, negatively impacting the Saudi market. Caution is advised in the short term.

5. Segmented Asset Analysis

1) US Tech Giants:

The dominant position of mega-cap tech companies (Mag7) may be challenged. Approximately 50% of Mag7 revenues come from overseas. If the EU and China continue with countermeasures, the fundamentals of Mag7 will continue to deteriorate. Tesla and Apple face the greatest risks, as both are manufacturing companies with supply chains located in the Asia-Pacific region. High tariffs will significantly reduce gross margins. Additionally, US trading partners may choose to use non-US chips, which could impact Nvidia as well.

Defensive Sectors:

In the short term, it's advisable to focus on defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. History shows that defensive sectors perform better during crisis periods. Additionally, value stocks with stable cash flows and high dividends may outperform growth stocks.

Other Companies Worth Attention:

• PDD's Temu platform will be most affected by the cancellation of de minimis exemption for small packages. However, its current valuation is relatively low, with a P/E ratio of less than 10x. Without considering the US business, the valuation is not high. 
• Companies with zero exports to the US: If stock prices of such companies decline significantly, it's likely due to emotional overselling, and theoretical rebounds could be substantial. Monitoring these is recommended.
• Domestic consumer brands: Local cosmetics, apparel, home appliances, and other brands supported by the local market are not affected by tariffs. Additionally, their demand is relatively stable, showing better performance amid pessimistic sentiment.
• Saudi utilities companies: These have no export business and relatively stable demand. After significant stock price corrections, their attractiveness becomes more pronounced.

2) Gold

Current Market Conditions
Gold prices have risen approximately 15% since the beginning of the year, from $2,600 to around $3,000, briefly breaking through the $3,200 threshold in early April, reaching a historic high. This upward trend has been primarily driven by:

• Continuous gold purchases by global central banks
• Rising geopolitical uncertainties
• Decline in the dollar index (from around 110 to around 106)
• Concerns about upward inflation risks

Multiple Impacts of Tariff Policy on Gold Market
The tariff policy will directly push up prices of imported goods in the US, exacerbating inflationary pressures. According to historical data, gold typically outperforms other major asset classes in an environment of rising inflation expectations. This will support gold's continued strength.

Accelerated central bank gold purchasing trend: Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global "de-dollarization" trend among central banks has notably accelerated, while simultaneously increasing gold reserves. Trump's tariff policy may further intensify countries' concerns about the risks of dollar assets, stimulating central banks to increase their gold allocations.

Investment Strategies and Recommendations

Core allocation: Consider increasing gold allocation in your investment portfolio to 10-15% as a hedging tool against multiple risks.
Strategic entry points: Use price corrections to the $2,800-$2,850 range to establish long-term positions.
Diversified instruments:

• Gold ETF (GLD): Provides liquidity and convenience
• Core perspective: Despite potential short-term volatility, gold prices are likely to maintain strength in the medium to long term, driven by Trump's tariff policy and the macroeconomic uncertainties it generates.

6. Key Risk Monitoring Points

1) Policy Adjustment Signals

• Negotiation and settlement paths: China and the US may reach agreements on specific areas such as TikTok, fentanyl, energy/agricultural product purchases
• Implementation delays: Past tariff policy implementations have often been accompanied by delays and revisions, requiring close attention

2) Economic Warning Indicators

• Wage growth indicators: Observe whether US wage growth is rising, which will determine if inflation persists
• Consumer and business confidence: Monitor whether soft data translates into actual economic activity
• Credit market performance: Pay attention to whether credit spreads widen, which is typically a leading indicator of market pressure

3) Corporate Reactions and Operational Adjustments

• Price transfer capability: Monitor whether companies can pass tariff costs on to consumers
• Supply chain restructuring speed: Observe the construction speed of alternative production capacity in Mexico, India, etc.
• Changes in capital expenditure plans: Pay attention to whether companies postpone or readjust investment plans

4) Subsequent Policy Development Paths
Follow-up actions between China-US and EU-US: If retaliatory actions continue to escalate, causing confrontation to spread beyond tariffs, this represents the greatest risk. At that point, the extent of market decline could be extremely severe, potentially becoming the biggest black swan event, requiring close monitoring.

Disclaimer:
The Information presented above is for information purposes only, which shall not be intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation for an offer to buy any securities or financial instrument or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments or investments. When making a decision about your investments, you should seek the advice of a professional financial adviser and carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in light of your own experience, financial position and investment objectives. The firm and its analysts do not have any material interest or conflict of interest with any stocks mentioned in this report.

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